HIV/AIDS Crisis: Millions More Could Die If Global Funding Cuts Move Ahead, Study Warns

Proposed cuts to international HIV funding by major donor countries could reverse decades of progress in combating the epidemic, potentially leading to millions of new infections and deaths by 2030, according to a new study published in The Lancet HIV. 

Researchers from Australia's Burnet Institute modeled several funding scenarios and found that by 2030, reduced contributions could lead to between 4.4 million and 10.8 million new HIV infections and 770,000 to 2.9 million more HIV-related deaths globally in both children and adults, the study noted.

The hardest-hit regions? Sub-Saharan Africa and underserved populations, including sex workers, intravenous drug users, and children.

The projected decline follows reports of top donor nations considering pulling back funding, including the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, and the Netherlands — countries that collectively account for over 90% of international HIV support. The U.S. has already paused foreign aid spending as of January 20, 2025, for a 90-day review.

Since 2015, 40% of all HIV/ AIDS funding in low-and-middle-income countries come from international donors. These cover antiretroviral therapy (ART), HIV testing, and prevention programs--efforts that have promoted the decline in HIV cases around the world, underscoring the importance of their support.

“The United States has historically been the largest contributor to global efforts to treat and prevent HIV, but the current cuts… have already disrupted access to essential HIV services,” study lead author Dr. Debra ten Brink of the Burnet Institute, said in a press release.

Beyond HIV, these programs also support other health programs, including tuberculosis treatment, maternal health services, and workforce training. Experts fear that a drop in funding could trigger a domino effect in an already burdened global health system.

"There is an urgent need for innovative, country-led financing strategies and an integration of HIV services into broader health systems...Long-term strategic planning is required for countries to transition from internationally supported to domestically financed programs," added Dr. Nick Scott, study lead co-author.

The Burnet Institute’s findings hope to serve as a warning that disinvestment now could undo decades of global progress in HIV treatment.

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